Updated 01/04/2010 05:50 PM
Forecasters cautiously optimistic about state economy
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RALEIGH – The North Carolina Chamber of Commerce and North Carolina Bankers Association's eighth annual Economic Forecast Forum brought some good news and some continued concern.
Economic forecasters say they’re cautiously optimistic about the financial future heading into 2010.
“I continue to be worried about the fragility of the economy with level of unemployment,” says new Bank of America President and CEO Brian Moynihan. “This leads our forecasters to predict a long and slow recovery.”
On his first day on the job, Moynihan addressed his financial world colleagues to say he believes things are looking up, even if only slightly. But he said the industry has to accept that things have changed about how people and businesses are handling their money.
“Customers, even the most affluent, are shifting their spending away from credit, to debit cards. Showing a reluctance to incur more debt, and a desire to clean up their balance sheets,” says Moynihan.
Overall economic outlook predictions were cautiously optimistic. They say they expect a moderate 4 percent growth globally, a 3 percent growth nationally and even less closer to home.
“We're forecasting about 2.9 percent, which is on the downside if you will, of what a lot of people are forecasting,” says economic forecaster John Connaugton. “We just don't see the growth or recovery being that strong in 2010.”
Connaugton says even though the recession technically ended in June of last year, it will probably take this entire year before things start to look up for North Carolina's economy.
The North Carolina Chamber of Commerce says state businesses will be ready when the finances start to turn around.
“I think what business leaders have done in this state is focus on the future, they have been investing in their infrastructure and their human capital, their people, so they are in a better position for the economic recovery when it occurs,” says Lew Ebert, N.C. Chamber President and CEO.
During the recession, North Carolina has lost 250,000 jobs. Economic forecasters say it will take years to gain back all of those positions.